Zelenskyy/Trump exchange reminds me of Rajiv Gandhi/Prabhakaran in 1987
I live in Geneva, the capital of global diplomacy. Geneva is in Switzerland, a country that is not part of the European Union(EU) and known for its neutrality (on most issues at least). Also, because of my experience working in international affairs at a leading international organization, global issues naturally become the subject of everyday conversation because of my network.
I am a fan of Gandhi and his non-violent approaches in India’s freedom struggle (against the British) which were the first of their kind in the history of mankind. So, naturally, I am not a fan of the Russia-Ukraine war. I feel that it was unnecessary. With Trump coming in, there were signs that the war will somehow come to an end.
Two recent incidents made me reflect on my stand in this conflict. Last week, I attended the Sri Lankan Independence day celebrations hosted by the Srilankan Ambassador to the UN. I wrote about some dramatic changes that I witnessed in these celebrations which I have been attending for the last 12 years. Day before yesterday, I watched the infamous and indecent Kandhuvatti style (informal financiers who lend money for exorbitant interest rates in India) heated exchange between US President Trump and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine along with US Vice President JD Vance. While it was not surprising to see Trump being nasty, what was surprising was how Zelenskyy took on Trump and that too at the white house.
Trump roared during the meeting that if US stopped its support, Ukraine would not last for 2 weeks. Zelenskyy shot back sarcastically, ‘Putin said that the war would not last 3 days’. Isn’t it natural to believe that Ukraine wouldn’t last without the backing of these western powers especially US? What do they have? They rely on weapons from the west, funding from the west, may be even troops from the west at some point and they are fighting a nuclear power.
Isn’t Trump right?
History suggests otherwise.
Let’s examine a few situations where countries that were far weaker took on mighty countries.
Powerful US against a novice Vietnam:
North Vietnam — Why the USA lost the war in Vietnam — BBC
Powerful US against a chaotic Taliban:
Afghanistan: Why the US is there, why it’s leaving, what will happen when it’s gone | CNN Politics
In Afghanistan, 2,300 US military lives were lost, 20'907 soldiers were wounded, countless Afghan casualties and more than $2 trillion in US taxpayer money spent. Finally, US had to shut shop and left Afghanistan leaving the country in a far more messy state than before.
Afghanistan Mujahideens defeated the mighty soviet forces in the 1980s which is another example.
But the Russia-Ukraine conflict is slightly different where US is not directly fighting but rather supporting a small country fighting for its sovereignty against a nuclear power.
Trump, being a businessman, naturally focuses on the monetary side of things and questions why 100s of billions of dollars of American taxpayer money is spent for over three years in a conflict that is happening very far from their borders. Is he wrong?
No.
Zelenskyy has successfully mobilized all the major western powers to supply him with weapons and funding to fight for his country and his people because it was Russia that started the war and his fight is a moral fight. Is he wrong?
No.
What about Putin? Why did he start the war? Putin has been consistent in his position from his famous speech in 2007 at the Global security conference in Munich where he launched a scathing attack against US and Western Countries for their hypocrisy and that too with Angela Merkel and the likes in the audience.
Is he wrong?
No.
If nobody is wrong, what happens to this conflict? What should the weaker side, Ukraine and Zelenskyy, do in this situation? How can Zelenskyy who is in such a weak position where his country is getting wrecked and where his country’s existence hinges on the backing by US and Europe afford to take on Trump and lose US’s backing?
I could not help but draw parallels with a similar confrontation that happened in India in 1987 between Sri Lanka, LTTE leader Prabhakaran and former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.
It was 29 July 1987. Colombo was under curfew. Riots had broken out. Spirals of smoke bellowed out of buildings. It was clear that Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was not welcome. Rajiv had arrived on a two-day trip to sign the Indo-Sri Lankan Peace Accord with JR Jayawardhane, the President of Sri Lanka. Prabhakaran, the fearsome LTTE leader, was confined to Room 518 at the Ashoka Hotel in New Delhi. It was not a house arrest but it was a 5 star hotel arrest in a way.
Think of the situation where Russia and US are negotiating in Riyadh but without the main actor Ukraine in the table. Ukraine was ignored because the other two, especially the bigger power US thought Ukraine is dependent on them. This is very similar to how India dealt with LTTE during the signing of the accord.
The Indian side even threatened him and Prabhakaran’s response was historic which you can see in the video below.
The Indian PM, Rajiv Gandhi forced Prabhakaran to sign the accord and surrender the arms. Prabhakaran’s guerilla military unit was trained by India and was operating with support from Indian leaders such as Indira Gandhi & MG Ramachandran. They were too tiny to take on the might of India and more than that, to fight Sri Lanka, they needed India. But the forced peace accord complicated things and events led to a situation where LTTE had to fight both Sri Lanka and the Indian Peace Keeping Force(IPKF).
LTTE was tiny, needed weapons and funding from India and their fighters were not well trained military men. What happened?
LTTE crushed IPKF and made them bite the dust. Lt Gen AS Kalkat (retd), the Commander of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) in an interview a decade later conceded that forcing the Indo-SL peace accord was a grave mistake.
If your son or daughter had not made any mistake and is bullied at school by some big boys, what would you tell your kids? To accept your fate or stand up against them?
If your employer is treating you unfairly for no fault of yours, what would you do? You will accept your fate or stand up against them?
You have a plot of land and someone comes & starts the fencing work there. What would you do?
Zelenskyy won my admiration for taking that bold stand against the world’s most powerful person and that too in his own backyard. That said, I hope things don’t escalate further and that all sides find a peaceful solution that works for them.
Also, I accept that it is unfair to compare an elected head of a state of a sovereign country (Zelenskyy) with a Guerilla leader (Prabhakaran) who was fighting for his land & people but this parallel is primarily to drive the point that small and poor doesn’t make one weak and feeble. Counter intuitively, it makes someone who is fighting for a bigger cause, for his land and his people, mightily powerful.
Even Prabhakaran’s fight didn’t go in vain. Tamils who were marginalized by my wife’s side (Sinhalese) that led to the armed conflict are now treated as equal citizens. I was referring to the Sri Lankan independence celebrations in Geneva at the start of this post and the connection to this one is not just the Prabhakaran link but also the fact that the celebrations are becoming more inclusive with every passing year. I wrote about it too. Sri Lanka is learning so late; India needs to learn fast and not tread that path.
Without the fight, Tamils would not have gained this position. However, the civil war in Sri Lanka led to large scale violence that led to the death of hundreds of thousands of people on both sides and any war would naturally lead to catastrophic outcomes for all sides.
It is important to fight and stand up to a bully. But the fight can be non-violent. A great man from my country along with millions of satyagrahis had already shown the way almost 100 years back.
